Thursday, April 25, 2013

Competitive Mock v. 3.0 (Final)

Below is the Mocktopus' final "Competitive Mock" which uses the Mocktopus' models to create the highest projected score using the mock draft scoring system popularized by the Huddle Report (two point for a player correctly matched with his team and one point for a player correctly mocked in the first round).

Although the Competitive Mock is not as controversial as the Fan Mock because it eliminates the "doubles," it bucks conventional wisdom in its own way.

The most controversial pick you will see here is Star Lotulelei falling all the way to the San Francisco 49ers at number thirty one.  Of course, the Mocktopus thinks this will almost certainly not happen.  However, it is not easy to find a home for Star.  Star is a possibility at the Eagles at number four, but the near consensus forming around Johnson makes him a poor fit there.  The Cowboys are another strong possibility, but Sylvester Williams appears there in slightly more simulations, and there is no other place to put Williams where he captures the same potential points.  Enter the 49ers, whose most likely draftee according to the Mocktopus is Kenny Vacarro, who is a much better fit in about five other places.  The Mocktopus slides Lotulelei in that slot because it can then "lock" in the one expected point for mocking him in the first round, and it loses very little in terms of the potential two point score it could get from mocking another player to that slot.

Another difficult player to mock is Dion Jordan.  If the Mocktopus can't mock Jarvis Jones to both the Saints and the Steelers, the Mocktopus likes Jordan to the Saints.  If the Jaguars are interested in one of the offensive tackles, the Browns are interested in a quarterback or a cornerback, and the Jets prefer Mingo, it would be easy for Jordan to slip to number fifteen, where the Saints would likely be eager to snatch him up.

One interesting team in this draft is the Bills.  Many mocks have Syracuse quarterback going to the Bills at number eight, but the Mocktopus feels it is unlikely to occur.  The Mocktopus values Nassib at approximately the 54th best player in the draft, and taking such a player at number eight would be a reach of historic proportions, especially considering that stronger prospects like Barkley will likely be on the board.  Barkley himself is an interesting case.  He has nearly a 50-50 shot to drop to the second round, but his best shot of going in the first (absent a trade scenario) is at number eight to the Bills.  Tavon Austin is another strong possibility.

1. Kansas City Chiefs / Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan 
2. Jacksonville Jaguars / Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M
3. Oakland Raiders / Sharif Floyd, DT, Florida
4. Philadelphia Eagles / Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma
5. Detroit Lions / Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU
6. Cleveland Browns / Geno Smith, QB, West Virginai
7. Arizona Cardinals / Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina
8. Buffalo Bills / Matt Barkley, QB, USC
9. New York Jets / Barkevious Mingo, OLB, LSU
10. Tennessee Titans / Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama
11. San Diego Chargers / Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama
12. Miami Dolphins / D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama
13. New York Jets / Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame
14. Carolina Panthers / Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri
15. New Orleans Saints / Dion Jordan, OLB, Oregon
16. St. Louis Rams / Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee
17. Pittsburgh Steelers / Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia
18. Dallas Cowboys / Sylvester Williams, DT, Missouri
19. New York Giants / Tank Carradine, DE, Florida State
20. Chicago Bears / Manti Te'o, ILB, Notre Dame
21. Cincinnati Bengals / Eric Reid, SAF, LSU
22. St. Louis Rams / Kenny Vacarro, SAF, Texas
23. Minnesota Vikings / Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia
24. Indianapolis Colts / D.J. Hayden, CB, Houston
25. Minnesota Vikings / Alec Ogletree, ILB, Georgia
26. Green Bay Packers / Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama
27. Houston Texans / Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee
28. Denver Broncos / Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State
29. New England Patriots / Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State
30. Atlanta Falcons / Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington
31. San Francisco 49ers / Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah
32. Baltimore Ravens / Arthur Brown, OLB, Kansas State

Second Round Probabilities

With the final mocks and rankings entered, it's time to calculate the probability that each prospect falls to the second round.  Although there is considerable confusion concerning who will go where in the first, the actual identity of the first rounders is relatively certain, as reflected in the probabilities below.

Name
Pos
University
Percent
Luke Joeckel OT Texas A&M 0.9%
Dee Milliner CB Alabama 1.1%
Eric Fisher OT Central Michigan 1.1%
Chance Warmack IL Alabama 1.5%
Jonathan Cooper IL North Carolina 1.7%
Sharrif Floyd DL Florida 1.7%
Ezekiel Ansah ER Brigham Young 2.1%
Dion Jordan ER Oregon 2.8%
Lane Johnson OT Oklahoma 2.9%
Barkevious Mingo ER LSU 3.5%
Star Lotulelei DL Utah 4.0%
Xavier Rhodes CB Florida State 5.6%
Jarvis Jones ER Georgia 5.6%
Sheldon Richardson DL Missouri 7.6%
Kenny Vaccaro SAF Texas 9.5%
Tyler Eifert TE Notre Dame 12.9%
D.J. Fluker OT Alabama 14.6%
Desmond Trufant CB Washington 15.6%
Sylvester Williams DL North Carolina 16.4%
Bjoern Werner ER Florida State 16.7%
Cordarrelle Patterson WR Tennessee 20.6%
Manti Te'o LB Notre Dame 23.1%
Geno Smith QB West Virginia 29.6%
D.J. Hayden CB Houston 30.7%
Tavon Austin WR West Virginia 30.7%
Eric Reid SAF LSU 34.3%
Alec Ogletree LB Georgia 35.2%
Eddie Lacy RB Alabama 38.7%
Justin Hunter WR Tennessee 42.6%
Arthur Brown LB Kansas State 42.6%
Matt Barkley QB Southern California 48.1%
Datone Jones DL UCLA 52.7%
Robert Woods WR Southern California 60.1%
Cornellius Carradine ER Florida State 61.1%
Damontre Moore ER Texas A&M 61.1%
Matt Elam SAF Florida 64.2%
Zach Ertz TE Stanford 64.2%
Johnthan Banks CB Mississippi State 65.4%
Menelik Watson OT Florida State 68.2%
Kevin Minter LB LSU 72.2%
Montee Ball RB Wisconsin 73.6%
Jonathan Cyprien SAF Florida International 74.4%
EJ Manuel QB Florida State 76.3%
Johnathan Hankins DL Ohio State 78.5%
DeAndre Hopkins WR Clemson 82.2%
Justin Pugh OT Syracuse 82.4%
Jamar Taylor CB Boise State 82.6%
Margus Hunt ER Southern Methodist 83.9%
Larry Warford IL Kentucky 86.9%
Ryan Nassib QB Syracuse 87.0%
Keenan Allen WR California 88.6%
Kawann Short DL Purdue 88.7%
Kyle Long OT Oregon 91.0%
Travis Frederick IL Wisconsin 91.5%
Giovani Bernard RB North Carolina 94.5%
Robert Alford CB Southeastern Louisiana 94.5%
David Amerson CB North Carolina State 96.3%
Brian Schwenke IL California 96.6%
D.J. Swearinger SAF South Carolina 96.6%
Gavin Escobar TE San Diego State 96.8%
Andre Ellington RB Clemson 96.9%
Terron Armstead OT Arkansas-Pine Bluff 97.5%
Mike Glennon QB North Carolina State 97.7%
John Jenkins DL Georgia 98.0%
Vance McDonald TE Rice 98.4%
Terrance Williams WR Baylor 98.5%
Darius Slay CB Mississippi State 98.5%
Alex Okafor ER Texas 98.7%
Barrett Jones IL Alabama 99.0%
Tyler Bray QB Tennessee 99.1%
Sio Moore LB Connecticut 99.1%
Jesse Williams DL Alabama 99.2%
Sam Montgomery ER LSU 99.5%
Khaseem Greene LB Rutgers 99.6%
Johnathan Franklin RB UCLA 99.7%
Tyler Wilson QB Arkansas 99.7%
Travis Kelce TE Cincinnati 99.8%
J.J. Wilcox SAF Rutgers 99.8%
Le'Veon Bell RB Michigan State 99.8%
Quinton Patton WR Louisiana Tech 99.8%
Brian Winters OT Kent State 99.9%
Blidi Wreh-Wilson CB Connecticut 99.9%
Aaron Dobson WR Marshall 99.9%
Jamie Collins ER Southern Mississippi 99.9%

Fan Mock v. 3.0 (FINAL)

There has been a lot of movement in the mock drafts in the last 24 hours, as reflected in the Mocktopus's "Final" Fan Mock (subject to last minute editing if the mocks are also further edited).

This is a draft where using "doubles" could potentially pay off.  For example, a trade into the first round, the mocks agree that Geno Smith will likely go to the Browns, Bills, or Jets.  The Mocktopus' Fan Mock can hedge its bets by mocking Geno multiple places in the hopes that it can get one of those picks right.  Dion Jordan and Dee Milliner continue to be hard players to mock.  The Mocktopus thinks that they are both strong second or third choices for a number of teams in the early to mid first round.

One interesting trend is the near consensus that Lane Johnson will go to the Eagles, which is remarkable, because almost no one was of that opinion twenty four hours ago.  Presently, the Mocktopus's picks made with the most confidence are Sharrif Floyd to the Raiders, Barkevious Mingo to the Jets, and Lane Johnson to the Eagles.

UPDATE: There are some small changes based on the late mocks, most notably Barkley's ascension to number eight.

1. Kansas City Chiefs / Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan 
2. Jacksonville Jaguars / Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M
3. Oakland Raiders / Sharif Floyd, DT, Florida
4. Philadelphia Eagles / Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma
5. Detroit Lions / Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU
6. Cleveland Browns / Geno Smith, QB, West Virginai
7. Arizona Cardinals / Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina
8. Buffalo Bills / Matt Barkley, QB, USC
9. New York Jets / Barkevious Mingo, OLB, LSU
10. Tennessee Titans / Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama
11. San Diego Chargers / Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama
12. Miami Dolphins / Kenny Vaccaro, SAF, Texas
13. New York Jets / Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame
14. Carolina Panthers / Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri
15. New Orleans Saints / Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia
16. St. Louis Rams / Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee
17. Pittsburgh Steelers / Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia
18. Dallas Cowboys / Sylvester Williams, DT, Missouri
19. New York Giants / Tank Carradine, DE, Florida State
20. Chicago Bears / Manti Te'o, ILB, Notre Dame
21. Cincinnati Bengals / Eric Reid, SAF, LSU
22. St. Louis Rams / Kenny Vacarro, SAF, Florida
23. Minnesota Vikings / Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee
24. Indianapolis Colts / Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State
25. Minnesota Vikings / Manti Te'o, LB, Notre Dame
26. Green Bay Packers / Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama
27. Houston Texans / Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee
28. Denver Broncos / Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State
29. New England Patriots / D.J. Hayden, CB, Houston
30. Atlanta Falcons / Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington
31. San Francisco 49ers / Kenny Vacarro, SAF, Stanford
32. Baltimore Ravens / Arthur Brown, OLB, Kansas State

Wednesday, April 24, 2013

Competitive Mock v. 2.0

Here is the Mocktopus's latest Competitive Mock.  Again, this mock draft has been optimized to get the highest projected score on the Huddle Report's scoring system (two points for a player matched correctly with a team and one point for each player correctly mocked in the first round).  

There are several "strategic" picks here that are unlikely to occur in the real draft.  Specifically, Dion Jordan, Tavon Austin, and Star Lotulelei are unlikely to go in the spots mocked here, but they are likely to be drafted somewhere in the first round.  Here, players like Tavon Austin replace players that Mocktopus's "Fan Mock" was lukewarm on, such as Justin Pugh, who is unlikely to be drafted in the first round if the Giants choose to pass on him.  

1. Kansas City Chiefs / Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M
2. Jacksonville Jaguars / Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan
3. Oakland Raiders / Sharif Floyd, DT, Florida
4. Philadelphia Eagles / Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma
5. Detroit Lions / Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU
6. Cleveland Browns / Geno Smith, QB, West Virginai
7. Arizona Cardinals / Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina
8. Buffalo Bills / Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama
9. New York Jets / Barkevious Mingo, OLB, LSU
10. Tennessee Titans / Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State
11. San Diego Chargers / Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama
12. Miami Dolphins / D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama
13. New York Jets / Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame
14. Carolina Panthers / Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri
15. New Orleans Saints / Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia
16. St. Louis Rams / Kenny Vacarro, SAF, Texas
17. Pittsburgh Steelers / Dion Jordan, OLB, Oregon
18. Dallas Cowboys / Sylvester Williams, DT, Missouri
19. New York Giants / Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia
20. Chicago Bears / Arthur Brown, OLB, Kansas State
21. Cincinnati Bengals / Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah
22. St. Louis Rams / Eric Reid, SAF, LSU
23. Minnesota Vikings / Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee
24. Indianapolis Colts / Datone Jones, DE, UCLA
25. Minnesota Vikings / Manti Te'o, LB, Notre Dame
26. Green Bay Packers / Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama
27. Houston Texans / Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee
28. Denver Broncos / Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State
29. New England Patriots / D.J. Hayden, CB, Houston
30. Atlanta Falcons / Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington
31. San Francisco 49ers / Zach Ertz, TE, Stanford
32. Baltimore Ravens / Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia

Fan Mock v. 2.0

With the NFL Draft less than 24 hours away, here is the second-to-last version of the Mocktopus' "Fan Mock," which is not so much a mock draft but a collection of projections for each of the 32 teams.  A more thorough explanation of the "Fan Mock" can be found here.

The latest incarnation of the rumor mill suggests that it might be Eric Fisher, and not Luke Joeckel, who will go number one overall to the Chiefs.  The Mocktopus currently projects Joeckel to the Chiefs by the thinnest of margins, but will likely move towards Fisher if any of the mocks updated tomorrow morning move in his direction.  Notice the lack of high-value players such as Dion Jordan, Dee Milliner, and Kenny Vacarro, who will almost certainly go in the first round.  The Mocktopus has a hard time mocking these players to individual teams, but you'll see them in our newest "Competitive Mock."

1. Kansas City Chiefs / Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M
2. Jacksonville Jaguars / Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan
3. Oakland Raiders / Sharif Floyd, DT, Florida
4. Philadelphia Eagles / Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma
5. Detroit Lions / Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU
6. Cleveland Browns / Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State
7. Arizona Cardinals / Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina
8. Buffalo Bills / Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama
9. New York Jets / Barkevious Mingo, OLB, LSU
10. Tennessee Titans / Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State
11. San Diego Chargers / Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama
12. Miami Dolphins / D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama
13. New York Jets / Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame
14. Carolina Panthers / Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri
15. New Orleans Saints / Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia
16. St. Louis Rams / Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama
17. Pittsburgh Steelers / Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee
18. Dallas Cowboys / Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah
19. New York Giants / Justin Pugh, OT, Syracuse
20. Chicago Bears / Arthur Brown, OLB, Kansas State
21. Cincinnati Bengals / Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia
22. St. Louis Rams / Arthur Brown, OLB, Kansas State
23. Minnesota Vikings / Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee
24. Indianapolis Colts / Datone Jones, DE, UCLA
25. Minnesota Vikings / Manti Te'o, LB, Notre Dame
26. Green Bay Packers / Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama
27. Houston Texans / Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee
28. Denver Broncos / Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State
29. New England Patriots / D.J. Hayden, CB, Houston
30. Atlanta Falcons / Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington
31. San Francisco 49ers / Zach Ertz, TE, Stanford
32. Baltimore Ravens / Kevin Minter, ILB, LSU

Monday, April 22, 2013

Mocktopus Top 100

As discussed in previous posts, an important component of the Mocktopus is a type of value board which estimates the value of each prospect in order to adjust for the bias of mock drafters towards team needs.  The Mocktopus' value board compiles the best value charts the Internet has to offer and weights them by their historical accuracy.  This is somewhat of a challenge because there have only been a few draftniks who have been producing Top 100 value boards long enough to get a large enough sample size to perform a fair evaluation of their relative strengths.  Another challenge is that there are not a lot of Top 100 lists that are very good.  Part of the issue is that it is hard enough to project where the first thirty two prospects will go, let alone the first hundred.  It takes a lot more work and a lot less luck to create a strong Top 100 list than it does for a strong mock draft.

In any event, aside from its use in the Mocktopus, a weighted consensus Top 100 list is an interesting instrument in and of itself.  Here is the Mocktopus' Top 100 list.  "ER" means all edge rushers (3-4 OLB's and 4-3 DE's), "DL" means all defensive tackles and 3-4 defensive ends, and "IL" means "interior offensive linemen."  I'll be tracking how well this Top 100 list stacks up by the scoring system used by the Huddle Report: one point per player selected in the top 100 of the actual NFL Draft.


Rank
Name
Pos
University
1 Eric Fisher OT Central Michigan
2 Luke Joeckel OT Texas A&M
3 Sharrif Floyd DL Florida
4 Chance Warmack IL Alabama
5 Lane Johnson OT Oklahoma
6 Dee Milliner CB Alabama
7 Dion Jordan ER Oregon
8 Jonathan Cooper IL North Carolina
9 Star Lotulelei DL Utah
10 Ezekiel Ansah ER Brigham Young
11 Barkevious Mingo ER LSU
12 Sheldon Richardson DL Missouri
13 Jarvis Jones ER Georgia
14 D.J. Fluker OT Alabama
15 Tyler Eifert TE Notre Dame
16 Kenny Vaccaro SAF Texas
17 Xavier Rhodes CB Florida State
18 Sylvester Williams DL North Carolina
19 Geno Smith QB West Virginia
20 Bjoern Werner ER Florida State
21 Cordarrelle Patterson WR Tennessee
22 Tavon Austin WR West Virginia
23 Manti Te'o LB Notre Dame
24 Alec Ogletree LB Georgia
25 Desmond Trufant CB Washington
26 Datone Jones DL UCLA
27 Eric Reid SAF LSU
28 Arthur Brown LB Kansas State
29 Eddie Lacy RB Alabama
30 Matt Barkley QB USC
31 Menelik Watson OT Florida State
32 Justin Hunter WR Tennessee
33 Damontre Moore ER Texas A&M
34 Robert Woods WR USC
35 Johnathan Hankins DL Ohio State
36 Cornellius Carradine ER Florida State
37 D.J. Hayden CB Houston
38 Zach Ertz TE Stanford
39 Justin Pugh OT Syracuse
40 DeAndre Hopkins WR Clemson
41 Matt Elam SAF Florida
42 Keenan Allen WR California
43 Johnthan Banks CB Mississippi State
44 Jonathan Cyprien SAF Fla. International
45 Kevin Minter LB LSU
46 Margus Hunt ER SMU
47 Kawann Short DL Purdue
48 EJ Manuel QB Florida State
49 Montee Ball RB Wisconsin
50 Kyle Long OT Oregon
51 Jamar Taylor CB Boise State
52 Terrance Williams WR Baylor
53 Ryan Nassib QB Syracuse
54 Larry Warford IL Kentucky
55 John Jenkins DL Georgia
56 Terron Armstead OT AR-Pine Bluff
57 Jesse Williams DL Alabama
58 Giovani Bernard RB North Carolina
59 Travis Frederick IL Wisconsin
60 Alex Okafor ER Texas
61 David Amerson CB N. Carolina State
62 Quinton Patton WR Louisiana Tech
63 Robert Alford CB Se. Louisiana
64 Darius Slay CB Mississippi State
65 Aaron Dobson WR Marshall
66 Gavin Escobar TE San Diego State
67 D.J. Swearinger SAF South Carolina
68 Sam Montgomery ER LSU
69 Brian Schwenke IL California
70 Mike Glennon QB N. Carolina State
71 Andre Ellington RB Clemson
72 Blidi Wreh-Wilson CB Connecticut
73 Sio Moore LB Connecticut
74 Brandon Williams DL Missouri Southern
75 Brian Winters OT Kent State
76 Vance McDonald TE Rice
77 Khaseem Greene LB Rutgers
78 Jamie Collins ER So. Mississippi
79 Dwayne Gratz CB Connecticut
80 Johnathan Franklin RB UCLA
81 Jordan Poyer CB Oregon State
82 Le'Veon Bell RB Michigan State
83 Markus Wheaton WR Oregon State
84 Barrett Jones IL Alabama
85 Tyler Bray QB Tennessee
86 Stedman Bailey WR West Virginia
87 Tyler Wilson QB Arkansas
88 Logan Ryan CB Rutgers
89 David Bakhtiari OT Colorado
90 J.J. Wilcox SAF Rutgers
91 Travis Kelce TE Cincinnati
92 Cornelius Washington ER Georgia
93 B.W. Webb CB William & Mary
94 Jon Bostic LB Florida
95 Christine Michael RB Texas A&M
96 Corey Lemonier ER Auburn
97 Phillip Thomas SAF Fresno State
98 David Quessenberry OT San Diego State
99 Tyrann Mathieu CB LSU
100 Bennie Logan DL LSU

Don't Count a Running Back Out of the First Round Yet

There is considerable speculation that the first round of this year's NFL Draft could end without a running back going off the board for the first time since 1963.  Indeed, some have come perilously close to calling this year's first round running back free before it starts.

Although this is a great year to snap the first round running back streak, it is way too soon to count a running back out of the first round.  According to the Mocktopus' simulations, there is a nearly 65% chance that a running back hears his name called this coming Thursday.

If that number seems high to you, it seemed high to me too.  That is, until I compared the running backs in this draft class with the recent history of running backs drafted in the latter half of the first round.

The broad consensus is that the back with the best chance of going in the first round is Alabama's Eddie Lacy.  The Mocktopus currently values Lacy as the 43rd pick in the draft.  That number superficially suggests that he will fall outside the first round.  However, similarly-valued backs usually end up going off the board at the end of the first.  Chris Johnson is a well-known name now, but in the 2008 Draft he was valued somewhere between the 44th and 45th pick, yet he was selected in the first round.  The next year, Donald Brown was selected with the 27th pick of the draft, despite being valued at only the 39th best player in the draft--very close to Lacy's ranking this year.  Although there has been some talk that running backs have fallen in value in recent years, just last year two teams "reached" slightly to draft running backs.  Specifically, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers traded up to draft Doug Martin, valued at the 40th pick in the draft, and the New York Giants closed out the round by selecting David Wilson, who had a value between the 45th and 46th picks.

Of course, there are some counter examples too.  Brian Leonard was valued at the 40th pick in the draft, and he managed to slip to the second round of the 2007 draft.  Also, in the 2011 Draft, Mikel Leshoure, who had roughly the same value as Lacy slipped to the second round.  However, those counter-examples are the reason that the chances of a running back going in this year's draft are somewhat close to 50-50, not a reason to claim definitively there "will not" be a running back drafted in the first round.

The great advantage of drafting a running back is that the investment typically yields immediate (although short-lived) returns.  That might be an appealing prospect for the type of teams who typically select at the end of the draft, who have had recent success and may be looking for the one piece that can "get them over the top."  The Broncos, Falcons, 49ers, and Packers, for example, could reasonably expect to field Super Bowl teams next year, and all could benefit from better talent at the running back position.

Sunday, April 21, 2013

Manti Te'o in Graph Form

I have been making a lot of graphs of where the Mocktopus thinks certain prospects will go in the first round.  One graph that tracks the conventional wisdom pretty closely is Manti Teo's.


Notice that the chances that Te'o gets selected in the first half of the first round are slim.  However, they increase steadily as the round draws closer to a close, except with a huge spike at number twenty five (Vikings) and number thirty two (Ravens).

Chance Warmack in Graph Form

Chance Warmack will almost certainly be a first round pick, but finding a home for him in the first round is difficult.  Here is a chart of where Warmack goes in the Mocktopus' 10,000 simulations.


Notice that no team has as much of a 10% chance to draft Warmack, with the exception of the Rams, who only break the 10% barrier because they have two first round picks.

Another Reason for the Buccaneers to Trade for Revis: Their Pick Might Suck for Them

There have been numerous reports that the Buccaneers are interested in trading for all-world (but currently injured) cornerback Darrelle Revis.  Trading for Revis has an understandable appeal: there is no better way to upgrade a clear position of need with a player who has been the league's best for years.  However, there may be another reason for the Buccaneers to trade for Revis: their pick might suck for them.

Although its principal purpose is to create mock drafts, the Mocktopus can also measure the likelihood that a given player is available at a given pick.  Unfortunately for the Buccaneers, there is a good chance that the value on the board at number thirteen will not line up well with their needs.

The Buccaneers' greatest need appears to be at cornerback.  If the season were to start today, the Buccaneers would go to war with two of either journeyman Eric Wright, unproven Leonard Johnson, or aging Rhonde Barber.  The Buccaneers also have little depth at the position.

Unfortunately, there is a huge talent gap between the first and second cornerbacks available in the NFL Draft.  Dee Milliner, the Draft's top cornerback, is unlikely to be available to the Buccaneers: he is available in just 21.7% of simulations.  Xavier Rhodes, the draft's second-best cornerback, is available in 68.2% of simulations, but would be poor value.  The Mocktopus estimates that Rhodes is worth approximately the 25th pick in the draft, which would make his selection at thirteen somewhat of a reach.

The Buccaneers also could conceivably go after an edge pass rusher.  The most likely options appear to be Barkevious Mingo and Bjoern Werner, who are available to the Buccaneers in 44.2% and 57.6% of simulations respectively.  Although you can never have enough good pass rushers, however, another edge rusher might be difficult to justify, given that the Buccaneers still have two highly drafted players, Adrian Clayborn and Da'Quan Bowers, to battle the new draftee for playing time.

Selecting a defensive tackle may be a slightly better option.  Some mock drafts have the Buccaneers selecting Utah's Star Lotulelei as a "good value" pick.  However, although Lotulelei does not have an obvious place within the first twelve picks, he is likely to go somewhere: the Mocktopus has him available in just 33.5% of simulations.  More likely, the Draft's third highest rated defensive tackle, Sheldon Richardson, will be available: he appears in 54.9% of simulations.  Richardson, however, is less an ideal and more an "acceptable" selection.  He is only an average value: the Mocktopus values him somewhere between the fourteenth and fifteenth pick in the draft.  So, in essence, the most likely selection for the Buccaneers fills a moderate need and is an average value.  That's hardly an opportunity appealing enough to tempt the Buccaneers away from Revis.

That said, the Buccaneers are smart to wait until they are on the clock to pull the trigger on the trade.  Although there is only a roughly 21.7% chance that Milliner is available and only a roughly 33.5% chance that Lotulelei is available, there is a nearly 50% chance that at least one of those two will be available.  Having a potential trade for Revis in hand, however, is a great fallback option.


Saturday, April 20, 2013

Barkevious Mingo in Graph Form

I have started making a few graphs showing where certain players are going in Mocktopus' simulations.  The first of those is star LSU defensive end/outside linebacker Barkevious Mingo.  Notice the strong chance of Mingo going off the board between the number seven and number fifteen picks.  That sharp tick up at twenty four is the Indianapolis Colts, which are likely to break his fall if he somehow makes it down to them.


If the Detroit Lions Want Eric Fisher (or Someone Else), They Can Likely Have Him

As a fan of the Detroit Lions, I cannot help but be pleased with their options at number five.  Indeed, the Mocktopus thinks that there is a tremendous chance that a quality player who will fill a team need will be available at the fifth overall pick.

After the retirement of Jeff Backus, the Lions' greatest need may be left tackle.  Although second-year man Riley Reiff was a high draft pick last year, he was unable to beat out Gosder Cherilus for the starting role at right tackle as a rookie, and moreover, with Reiff at left tackle, the Lions would have very little to offer on the right side.

The Mocktopus believes that if the Detroit Lions want Eric Fisher, who some think is the best player available in the draft at any position, they can likely have him.  Fisher was available to the Lions in almost 73% of the Mocktopus' simulations.  Assuming the Chiefs take Luke Joeckel as expected, that number goes up to almost 83%.  Similarly, if the Lions prefer Dee Milliner or Ziggy Ansah, each are available at number five in about 76% of simulations.

Indeed, the Lions' nightmare scenario, which is fairly unlikely to occur, probably looks something like this:

1. Kansas City Chiefs / Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M
2. Jacksonville Jaguars / Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU
3. Oakland Raiders / Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama
4. Philadelphia Eagles / Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan

Even in the nightmare scenario, Oklahoma offensive tackle Lane Johnson would be available.  The Mocktopus slots Johnson as about the eighth best player at the draft, so in effect, the worst case scenario is that the Lions make a slight reach to fill a position of great need.  As far as worst case scenarios go, that one is pretty good.

The Detroit Lions are well-positioned at number five.  In his latest mock draft, Mel Kiper predicts that the Lions will trade up to the number one overall pick to draft Dee Milliner.  That trade would be an extremely foolish one for the Lions to make.  Milliner will most likely fall to the Detroit Lions anyway, and moreover, even if someone takes Milliner in the top four, it is highly probable that the Lions will be able to get good value at another position of need.  Indeed, if Milliner is truly number one on their board, it would probably not even be worth it to swap picks with the Chiefs for free, given the larger contracts that come with the number one pick.  If the Lions were to trade up at all (which I doubt), the most likely scenario (in my mind) is that they would swap with the Oakland Raiders to secure the services of Eric Fisher before he makes it to the Eagles.

2013 Competitive Mock v. 1.0

A few days ago, I posted the first "Fan Mock" from the Mocktopus.  Today I'm posting the Mocktopus' first "Competitive Mock."  So what's the difference?

The Fan Mock eschews conventional wisdom by ignoring the tendency for mock drafts to try to create a plausible projection for the draft as a whole, in favor of making accurate as possible projections to each of the individual thirty teams (the Redskins and Seahawks do not have first round picks).  This exercise ends up creating a number of "doubles": players who are projected to two or more teams.

The Competitive Mock is a bit more traditional than the Fan Mock, but it breaks from conventional wisdom in its own way.  The Competitive Mock seeks to create a mock draft that optimizes the mock's ability to score well on the mock draft scoring system popularized by the web site The Huddle Report.  The Huddle Report scores mock drafts by awarding the mock draft two points for each player correctly mocked to his eventual team and one point for each player correctly mocked in the first round (so, for instance, a correct mocking of Luke Joeckel to the Chiefs would earn three points: two for pairing him for the Chiefs and one for the correctly including him in the first round).  

Accordingly, the Competitive Mock removes the weakest member of each "double" and replaces him with players who have the highest expected points in the Huddle Report's scoring system.  For example, the Mocktopus currently likes Cordarelle Patterson to go to both the Steelers and the Rams, but likes him to go to the Steelers a bit more.  At the same time, the Mocktopus has trouble finding a home for Warmack, a player who is not the most likely player at any one pick, but is almost certain to go somewhere in the first round.  It turns out that Warmack has a relatively strong chance of going to the Rams according to the Mocktopus, although not as strong as Austin or Patterson.  Thus, the Competitive Mock substitutes Patterson for Warmack in order to "lock in" a likely one point for mocking Warmack in the first round and a plausible chance of getting two points if the Rams do indeed select him.

Although the elimination of the doubles makes the Competitive Mock look a lot like a traditional mock, the Mocktopus's Competitive Mock often creates a mock draft that flows in a way that a traditional mock draft, or indeed, the actual NFL Draft, is likely to flow.  For example, when run for the 2011 NFL Draft, the Mocktopus mocked Muhammad Wilkerson to the San Francisco 49ers at number seven overall, even though there was almost no chance that the 49ers would take him there.  The Mocktopus's reasoning, however, was that the identity of the 49ers selection was incredibly uncertain, and that all of its potential selections were more likely to be drafted by other teams.  Meanwhile, the Mocktopus had trouble finding a place for Wilkerson, which it was nearly sure would be taken in the first round.  Accordingly, although it was much less than ideal, the Mocktopus put Wilkerson with the 49ers, locked in the one expected point, and sought to score more points elsewhere.  In retrospect, it was not a bad decision: the 49ers ended up selecting Aldon Smith, which was a mild surprise, and Wilkerson eventually went to the Jets near the end of round one.

1. Kansas City Chiefs / Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M
2. Jacksonville Jaguars / Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU
3. Oakland Raiders / Sharif Floyd, DT, Florida
4. Philadelphia Eagles / Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
5. Detroit Lions / Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama
6. Cleveland Browns / Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State
7. Arizona Cardinals / Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah
8. Buffalo Bills / Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia
9. New York Jets / Dion Jordan, OLB, Oregon
10. Tennessee Titans / Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State
11. San Diego Chargers / Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma
12. Miami Dolphins / Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers / Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri
14. Carolina Panthers / Kenny Vacarro, SAF, Texas
15. New Orleans Saints / Barkevious Mingo, OLB, LSU
16. St. Louis Rams / Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia
17. Pittsburgh Steelers / Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee
18. Dallas Cowboys / Johnathan Hankins, DT, Ohio State
19. New York Giants / D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama
20. Chicago Bears / Johnathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina
21. Cincinnati Bengals / Melenik Watson, OT, Florida State
22. St. Louis Rams / Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee
23. Minnesota Vikings / Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia
24. Indianapolis Colts / Datone Jones, DE, UCLA
25. Minnesota Vikings / Manti Te'o, LB, Notre Dame
26. Green Bay Packers / Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama
27. Houston Texans / Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame
28. Denver Broncos / Damontre Moore, DE, Texas A&M
29. New England Patriots / Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina
30. Atlanta Falcons / Zach Ertz, TE, Stanford
31. San Francisco 49ers / Eric Reid, SAF, LSU
32. Baltimore Ravens / Keenan Allen, WR, California


Friday, April 19, 2013

The Return of the Mocktopus: 2013 Fan Mock v. 1.0

The Mocktopus has returned for the 2013 NFL Draft!

Since it has been a while, here is a quick refresher.  The Mocktopus is a series of models that I created to predict the probability that a team on the clock will select a given player in the NFL Draft.  Included in the Mocktopus's data set is every first round pick made since 2005.  Although much derided, my research suggests that the most accurate predictors of who a player will draft are other mock drafts.  The Mocktopus includes several mock drafts, each which is given a weighted score based on its accuracy at predicting the results of past drafts.  As an overlay, the Mocktopus also includes takes into account Top 100 value lists from draft websites.  Although mock drafts are the best predictors of which prospect will go to which team, mock drafts typically overrate the role of "team need" plays in draft decision-making.  Thus, providing this value "check" on mock drafts differentiates the Mocktopus from a "consensus mock" which tallies up mock drafts like votes and slots players accordingly.  To take an example of how this works, last year many mock drafts had Mark Barron going to the Dallas Cowboys at number fourteen overall.  The Mocktopus, however, recognized that such a valuable player was unlikely to last until number fourteen, and it's instincts proved correct--Barron was drafted seventh overall by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Mocktopus treats some position groups differently depending on historical trends.  For one, the Mocktopus does not include the "value check" for quarterbacks or offensive tackles.  In a world where Christian Ponder and Jake Locker are first-round picks, NFL teams tend to abandon value.  A bit more surprising is that the Mocktopus has found a similar trend with offensive tackles.  Time and again, drafts have shown highly regarded offensive tackles such as Michael Oher, Bryan Bulaga, and Winston Justice slide to the end of the first round, and in Justice's case, out of the first round altogether.  Similarly, teams took players such as Sam Baker and Duane Brown about a round earlier than expected.  The Mocktopus has a few other  factors it considers such as age for quarterbacks and the big play capability of wide receivers on the active roster.

The first version of the Mocktopus was posted on Football Outsiders.  You can read the original article here.    This year, I am going to be posting the Mocktopus and its updates on this blog.  This format will be a little more flexible in that it will allow me to post updates to the Mocktopus as mock drafts change in the final week leading up to the NFL Draft, and if there is time, maybe add a few other posts about some interesting observations about the NFL Draft that are made possible by the Mocktopus.

The first mock of the year from the Mocktopus I call the "Fan Mock."  Let me explain what makes the "Fan Mock" unique among mock drafts.

I'm a fan of the Detroit Lions, so when I read a mock draft, I'm naturally most interested in who the author projects for the Detroit Lions.  Sure, I might read the dialogues for the first four picks, and maybe skim the rest in a casual fashion, but I honestly care little about who Mel Kiper thinks that the Atlanta Falcons are going to select at number thirty overall.

Now, one of the fun surprises I had when I created the Mocktopus is that it often projects the same player to multiple teams.  This is not a rare phenomenon: it occurs multiple times for every single draft that is included within the Mocktopus.  For example, for the 2011 NFL Draft, the Mocktopus would have projected Corey Liuget to both the Patriots and the Chargers, Cameron Heyward to both the Jets and the Patriots, and Gabe Carimi to both the Chiefs and the Bears.

This phenomenon occurs because, except in a few instances, there is often only a small probability that the most likely team to draft any given player actually drafts that player.  Imagine, for example, that there is a 100% chance that Geno Smith slides to the Cardinals, that the Cardinals have a 50% chance of selecting him, and have a 50% chance of drafting one of five other players.  Now imagine that the Bills will have to 50% chance to draft Geno Smith if the Cardinals pass, and have no more than a 15% chance of selecting any other player whether he falls or not.  If our goal is to create a mock draft that "gets the most picks right," we would project Geno Smith to both the Cardinals (50% chance) and Bills (25% chance with no other player more than a 15% chance).  Indeed, if we think the Jets have a 100% chance to draft Geno Smith if he falls to them, it is likely that we would project Geno Smith to go to three teams.

Because a mock draft that was interested in maximizing its accuracy at projecting each of the 32 selections in the first round would project the same player to multiple teams, it should follow that nearly every mock draft in America should do so.  I have read a number of mock drafts, however, and I can safely say that I have never seen a mock draft do this, even though, in theory, every mock draft should do this.  Indeed, all mock drafts will invariably have a pick or two that are forced and are not likely selections for the subject teams.  It appears that an unwritten rule of mock drafting is that a mock draft should be plausible, i.e. it is something that could happen on draft day.  I'm not convinced what, if anything, internal logic adds to the enterprise of mock drafting.  Given that the first round consists of thirty two selections, and that there are at least twenty players who could plausibly be selected at any one of those thirty two selections, the chances that any mock draft will later turn out to be 100% accurate is probably several times less likely than winning the lottery (a much better use, if you ask me, of such amazing, odds-defying luck).  It seems that mock drafters do a (admittedly mild) disservice to the fanbases of the teams that have been shoe horned into making improbable selections in the interest of chasing a goal that is a virtual statistical impossibility.

Hence, the Mocktopus's "Fan Mock."  The Fan Mock is perhaps the first mock draft ever to say to hell with internal logic and to match each and every one of the NFL's 32 teams with what it views as their most likely draftees.  The Fan Mock includes many glorious duplicates.  It is a mock draft for the people!

1. Kansas City Chiefs / Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M

After trading for Alex Smith, the mock draft world is largely in agreement that the Kansas City Chiefs are eyeing a tackle.  Most have Joeckel, but a few contrarians are suggesting Fisher.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars / Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU

The Jacksonville Jaguars have the chance to blow up everybody's mock draft early this year.  Ansah, Dion Jordan, Geno Smith, and even Sharif Floyd have been paired with a team that nobody seems to be able to figure out on draft day.

3. Oakland Raiders / Sharif Floyd, DT, Florida

The Mocktopus sees Star Lotulelei as the stronger prospect, but the consensus sending Floyd to the Raiders is so strong it overrides the Mocktopus's typical modus opperendi.

4. Philadelphia Eagles / Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia

The quarterbacks in this class are frustratingly hard to project.  There are too many teams in desperate need of a quarterback, and the draftnik community thinks that the best of the bunch, Geno Smith, has a talent level closer to a number twenty pick than a pick in the top five.

5. Detroit Lions / Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama

Millner edges Eric Fisher by the slightest of margins.  The non-role that "value" historically plays at the offensive tackle position, the lack of any cornerback prospect that could plausibly go here (there is a non-zero chance that if the Lions wanted a tackle, they could go for Lane Johnson), and the appreciably higher chance of Fisher being gone by this pick pushes the Mocktopus towards Millner.

6. Cleveland Browns / Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama

Our first double!  The mocks like the Browns to stay put and draft Milliner or trade down and take the less heralded Xavier Rhodes.

7. Arizona Cardinals / Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah

Star Lotulelei gets the edge over Lane Johnson because of value.

8. Buffalo Bills / Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia

This is an odd pick, and it is likely due to the Top 100 lists failing to catch up fast enough to Jones's falling stock.  They rate Jones as the best edge pass rusher in the NFL Draft, but after Jones ran a 4.88 forty-yard dash at his Pro Day, it is unlikely that NFL teams will agree.  Look for Jones to slide down the Mocktopus as the draft draws near.

9. New York Jets / Dion Jordan, OLB, Oregon

This pick would be the same whether you used the Mocktopus or a "consensus mock."

10. Tennessee Titans / Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State

Many mocks try to stick Chance Warmack, a highly regarded player who is hard to mock to any one team, on the Titans.  The Mocktopus sides with those who favor Bjoern Werner at this slot because mock drafts have historically done a poor job of pricing in the lower positional value of interior linemen, who tend to "slide" on draft day (see DeCastro, David).

11. San Diego Chargers / Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma

The Chargers act as almost a floor for Johnson.  The mocks see the Chargers trading up for Johnson or breaking his fall if others are leery of burning a top ten pick on an offensive linemen who is not far removed from playing quarterback.

12. Miami Dolphins / Kenny Vacarro, SAF, Texas

This is where projecting this draft gets really messy.  The Dolphins would like a tackle, probably, but are unlikely to get one worthy of this selection unless they trade out.  As far as team needs, they could go anywhere, so the Mocktopus gives them the best player available that is not an interior lineman.

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers / Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri

A lot of mocks have Star Lotulelei dropping here, but the Mocktopus deems this as somewhat unlikely, given that a player of Lotulelei's caliber is unlikely to slide quite this far.

14. Carolina Panthers / Kenny Vacarro, SAF, Texas

The Panthers could be in a great spot here to grab either Vacarro or Richardson, two good values that fill needs.

15. New Orleans Saints / Barkevious Mingo, OLB, LSU

Mingo is a consensus in the mock drafts, but he is hardly a lock here.  Mingo is the favorite to go to the Saints, but only appears there in just over 10% of simulations.

16. St. Louis Rams / Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia

After just missing out on Justin Blackmon last year, the Rams are likely to go for a wide receiver.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers / Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee

The mocks like Jarvis Jones or a receiver to the Steelers, but the Mocktopus thinks Jones is unlikely to fall, given his value.  That may changes as the Top 100 lists catch up to the mocks on draft day.

18. Dallas Cowboys / Kenny Vacarro, SAF, Texas

A triple!  Vacarro or one of the guards are the favorites for the Cowboys.

19. New York Giants / D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama

Offensive tackles are going to be a premium in this draft, and the Giants have a solid chance to grab the fourth rated offensive tackle here.

20. Chicago Bears / Johnathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina

Despite being a very highly regarded prospect, Cooper is a guard, and thus has a chance to slide here or out of the Top 20 altogether.

21. Cincinnati Bengals / Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia

The Bengals have a storied history of betting on prospects with alleged character issues, which makes Ogletree a natural fit here.

22. St. Louis Rams / Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee

Do you see what the Mocktopus did here?  The Rams are likely to draft a wide receiver, but they could easily go with either Patterson and Austin.  Because the Mocktopus's Fan Mock is more interested in correctly pairing players with their ultimate teams than creating a mock that is a plausible whole, the Mocktopus has the flexibility to use the opportunity to hedge its bet on Austin at number sixteen by matching Patterson with the Rams at twenty two.

23. Minnesota Vikings / Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia

The Vikings are likely interested in a linebacker, and both Ogletree and Te'o could be available here.

24. Indianapolis Colts / Datone Jones, DE, UCLA

The Colts need front seven help and badly.  Plenty of big bodies are likely to be available for the Colts at twenty four.


25. Minnesota Vikings / Manti Te'o, LB, Notre Dame

Similar to what it did with the Rams picks, the Mocktopus thinks that the Vikings will likely go linebacker at some point, and wants to corner both likely possibilities.

26. Green Bay Packers / Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame

Tyler Eifert wins or is close to winning a number of small pluralities at the end of the draft.

27. Houston Texans / Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame

The Mocktopus favored a tight end for the Texans last year as well.

28. Denver Broncos / Damontre Moore, DE, Texas A&M

At one point, the mocks had Moore as the favorite to go number two overall.  His star has sufficiently fallen that he could slip into the late first or slide out altogether.

29. New England Patriots / Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina

The Patriots draft day intentions are famously obtuse, so projecting players to them at this point in the draft is  little better than speculation.

30. Atlanta Falcons / Zach Ertz, TE, Stanford

The mocks like the Falcons to take a tight end to ultimately replace Tony Gonzalez.  Eifert is much more likely to be gone by the Falcons' pick than Ertz, so Ertz is the best bet here.

31. San Francisco 49ers / Eric Reid, SAF, LSU

After losing Dashon Goldson in free agency, Reid could be an appealing choice to add to a talented 49ers roster.

32. Baltimore Ravens / Keenan Allen, WR, California

Keenan Allen is more of a value pick for the Ravens, as the linebacker group is likely to be considerably picked over by the time the Ravens go on the clock.