Detroit Lions: Most Likely to be Available

The Mocktopus has a number of applications, but one of the most interesting is that it can track the number of times that a given player is available at a certain point in the Mocktopus' 10,000 simulated NFL Drafts.  We can use the number of simulations to estimate the probability that a given player will be available at a given pick.  Are you a Cincinnati Bengals fan with a man-crush on David DeCastro?  The Mocktopus can give you a good idea what the chances are that the Bengals will have the opportunity to grant your heart's desire.

I'm a long-time fan of the Detroit Lions, so I was most interested in estimating the chances that each of the highly regarded players in the 2012 NFL Draft will be available to the Detroit Lions. 

A few things to keep in mind when reading this list.

First, I would guess that most would be skeptical that there is any chance, much less an over 10% chance, that Morris Claiborne or Matt Kalil could be available to the Detroit Lions at No. 23 overall.  It could very well be that the Mocktopus underestimates the accuracy with which we can project the picks at the very top of the NFL Draft, but it is also good to remember that we do not know nearly as much about where players will go in the NFL Draft as we might think we do.  Alan Branch, Winston Justice, and Da'Quan Bowers, for instance, were projected to be drafted in the middle of the first round, but all three plummeted to the second round.  Accordingly, the Mocktopus hedges its bets as to even the most highly regarded prospects--because there is a non-zero chance that they are not nearly as highly regarded amongst NFL Teams as they are amongst NFL fans and Internet draftniks. 

Second, the current state of the data available to the Mocktopus is probably causing it to underproject the draft prospects of Chandler Jones and Shea McClellin.  Recently, the general consensus in the media has been that Jones and McClellin are much more highly regarded than fans previously believed.  I don't think that this rise is yet fully reflected in the rankings that underlie the Mocktopus' value metric, but I think we'll probably see a significant uptick in their rankings in Top 100 lists closer to the draft.

Here is the list of possible first-round Detroit Lions targets (any position other than quarterback) with the probability that they will be available to the Detroit Lions based on Mocktopus' 10,000 NFL Draft simulations:

Name                      Pos.          Percent

Trent Richardson	RB	2.7%
David DeCastro	IL	3.3%
Mark Barron	SAF	5.2%
Justin Blackmon	WR	5.8%
Quinton Coples	ER	6.3%
Fletcher Cox	DL	10.5%
Matt Kalil	OT	13.6%
Morris Claiborne	CB	14.3%
Luke Kuechly	LB	16.3%
Michael Floyd	WR	17.4%
Dontari Poe	DL	20.2%
Melvin Ingram	ER	20.6%
Courtney Upshaw	ER	27.5%
Michael Brockers	DL	29.7%
Cordy Glenn	OT	36.1%
Riley Reiff	OT	39.0%
Kendall Wright	WR	39.7%
Nick Perry	ER	53.7%
Dre Kirkpatrick	CB	58.6%
Stephon Gilmore	CB	59.2%
Peter Konz	IL	59.3%
Janoris Jenkins	CB	60.0%
Jerel Worthy	DL	64.8%
Jonathan Martin	OT	69.7%
Kevin Zeitler	IL	73.5%
Chandler Jones	ER	74.3%
Whitney Mercilus	ER	78.1%
Mike Adams	OT	80.6%
Rueben Randle	WR	82.6%
Kendall Reyes	DL	83.4%
Dont'a Hightower	LB	85.6%
Devon Still	DL	87.5%
Amini Silatolu	IL	87.9%
Coby Fleener	TE	89.8%
Harrison Smith	SAF	91.1%
David Wilson	RB	92.7%
Zach Brown	LB	93.0%
Andre Branch	ER	93.9%
Doug Martin	RB	94.5%
Bobby Massie	OT	95.6%
Lamar Miller	RB	97.5%
Brandon Thompson	DL	97.5%
Josh Robinson	CB	98.9%
Vinny Curry	ER	99.4%
George Iloka	SAF	99.9%