I'm a long-time fan of the Detroit Lions, so I was most interested in estimating the chances that each of the highly regarded players in the 2012 NFL Draft will be available to the Detroit Lions.
A few things to keep in mind when reading this list.
First, I would guess that most would be skeptical that there is any chance, much less an over 10% chance, that Morris Claiborne or Matt Kalil could be available to the Detroit Lions at No. 23 overall. It could very well be that the Mocktopus underestimates the accuracy with which we can project the picks at the very top of the NFL Draft, but it is also good to remember that we do not know nearly as much about where players will go in the NFL Draft as we might think we do. Alan Branch, Winston Justice, and Da'Quan Bowers, for instance, were projected to be drafted in the middle of the first round, but all three plummeted to the second round. Accordingly, the Mocktopus hedges its bets as to even the most highly regarded prospects--because there is a non-zero chance that they are not nearly as highly regarded amongst NFL Teams as they are amongst NFL fans and Internet draftniks.
Second, the current state of the data available to the Mocktopus is probably causing it to underproject the draft prospects of Chandler Jones and Shea McClellin. Recently, the general consensus in the media has been that Jones and McClellin are much more highly regarded than fans previously believed. I don't think that this rise is yet fully reflected in the rankings that underlie the Mocktopus' value metric, but I think we'll probably see a significant uptick in their rankings in Top 100 lists closer to the draft.
Here is the list of possible first-round Detroit Lions targets (any position other than quarterback) with the probability that they will be available to the Detroit Lions based on Mocktopus' 10,000 NFL Draft simulations:
Name Pos. Percent