Competitive Mock v. 3.0 (Final)

Below is the Mocktopus' final "Competitive Mock" which uses the Mocktopus' models to create the highest projected score using the mock draft scoring system popularized by the Huddle Report (two point for a player correctly matched with his team and one point for a player correctly mocked in the first round).

Although the Competitive Mock is not as controversial as the Fan Mock because it eliminates the "doubles," it bucks conventional wisdom in its own way.

The most controversial pick you will see here is Star Lotulelei falling all the way to the San Francisco 49ers at number thirty one.  Of course, the Mocktopus thinks this will almost certainly not happen.  However, it is not easy to find a home for Star.  Star is a possibility at the Eagles at number four, but the near consensus forming around Johnson makes him a poor fit there.  The Cowboys are another strong possibility, but Sylvester Williams appears there in slightly more simulations, and there is no other place to put Williams where he captures the same potential points.  Enter the 49ers, whose most likely draftee according to the Mocktopus is Kenny Vacarro, who is a much better fit in about five other places.  The Mocktopus slides Lotulelei in that slot because it can then "lock" in the one expected point for mocking him in the first round, and it loses very little in terms of the potential two point score it could get from mocking another player to that slot.

Another difficult player to mock is Dion Jordan.  If the Mocktopus can't mock Jarvis Jones to both the Saints and the Steelers, the Mocktopus likes Jordan to the Saints.  If the Jaguars are interested in one of the offensive tackles, the Browns are interested in a quarterback or a cornerback, and the Jets prefer Mingo, it would be easy for Jordan to slip to number fifteen, where the Saints would likely be eager to snatch him up.

One interesting team in this draft is the Bills.  Many mocks have Syracuse quarterback going to the Bills at number eight, but the Mocktopus feels it is unlikely to occur.  The Mocktopus values Nassib at approximately the 54th best player in the draft, and taking such a player at number eight would be a reach of historic proportions, especially considering that stronger prospects like Barkley will likely be on the board.  Barkley himself is an interesting case.  He has nearly a 50-50 shot to drop to the second round, but his best shot of going in the first (absent a trade scenario) is at number eight to the Bills.  Tavon Austin is another strong possibility.

1. Kansas City Chiefs / Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan 
2. Jacksonville Jaguars / Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M
3. Oakland Raiders / Sharif Floyd, DT, Florida
4. Philadelphia Eagles / Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma
5. Detroit Lions / Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU
6. Cleveland Browns / Geno Smith, QB, West Virginai
7. Arizona Cardinals / Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina
8. Buffalo Bills / Matt Barkley, QB, USC
9. New York Jets / Barkevious Mingo, OLB, LSU
10. Tennessee Titans / Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama
11. San Diego Chargers / Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama
12. Miami Dolphins / D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama
13. New York Jets / Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame
14. Carolina Panthers / Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri
15. New Orleans Saints / Dion Jordan, OLB, Oregon
16. St. Louis Rams / Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee
17. Pittsburgh Steelers / Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia
18. Dallas Cowboys / Sylvester Williams, DT, Missouri
19. New York Giants / Tank Carradine, DE, Florida State
20. Chicago Bears / Manti Te'o, ILB, Notre Dame
21. Cincinnati Bengals / Eric Reid, SAF, LSU
22. St. Louis Rams / Kenny Vacarro, SAF, Texas
23. Minnesota Vikings / Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia
24. Indianapolis Colts / D.J. Hayden, CB, Houston
25. Minnesota Vikings / Alec Ogletree, ILB, Georgia
26. Green Bay Packers / Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama
27. Houston Texans / Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee
28. Denver Broncos / Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State
29. New England Patriots / Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State
30. Atlanta Falcons / Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington
31. San Francisco 49ers / Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah
32. Baltimore Ravens / Arthur Brown, OLB, Kansas State

Second Round Probabilities

With the final mocks and rankings entered, it's time to calculate the probability that each prospect falls to the second round.  Although there is considerable confusion concerning who will go where in the first, the actual identity of the first rounders is relatively certain, as reflected in the probabilities below.

Name	Pos	University	Percent
Luke Joeckel	OT	Texas A&M	0.9%
Dee Milliner	CB	Alabama	1.1%
Eric Fisher	OT	Central Michigan	1.1%
Chance Warmack	IL	Alabama	1.5%
Jonathan Cooper	IL	North Carolina	1.7%
Sharrif Floyd	DL	Florida	1.7%
Ezekiel Ansah	ER	Brigham Young	2.1%
Dion Jordan	ER	Oregon	2.8%
Lane Johnson	OT	Oklahoma	2.9%
Barkevious Mingo	ER	LSU	3.5%
Star Lotulelei	DL	Utah	4.0%
Xavier Rhodes	CB	Florida State	5.6%
Jarvis Jones	ER	Georgia	5.6%
Sheldon Richardson	DL	Missouri	7.6%
Kenny Vaccaro	SAF	Texas	9.5%
Tyler Eifert	TE	Notre Dame	12.9%
D.J. Fluker	OT	Alabama	14.6%
Desmond Trufant	CB	Washington	15.6%
Sylvester Williams	DL	North Carolina	16.4%
Bjoern Werner	ER	Florida State	16.7%
Cordarrelle Patterson	WR	Tennessee	20.6%
Manti Te'o	LB	Notre Dame	23.1%
Geno Smith	QB	West Virginia	29.6%
D.J. Hayden	CB	Houston	30.7%
Tavon Austin	WR	West Virginia	30.7%
Eric Reid	SAF	LSU	34.3%
Alec Ogletree	LB	Georgia	35.2%
Eddie Lacy	RB	Alabama	38.7%
Justin Hunter	WR	Tennessee	42.6%
Arthur Brown	LB	Kansas State	42.6%
Matt Barkley	QB	Southern California	48.1%
Datone Jones	DL	UCLA	52.7%
Robert Woods	WR	Southern California	60.1%
Cornellius Carradine	ER	Florida State	61.1%
Damontre Moore	ER	Texas A&M	61.1%
Matt Elam	SAF	Florida	64.2%
Zach Ertz	TE	Stanford	64.2%
Johnthan Banks	CB	Mississippi State	65.4%
Menelik Watson	OT	Florida State	68.2%
Kevin Minter	LB	LSU	72.2%
Montee Ball	RB	Wisconsin	73.6%
Jonathan Cyprien	SAF	Florida International	74.4%
EJ Manuel	QB	Florida State	76.3%
Johnathan Hankins	DL	Ohio State	78.5%
DeAndre Hopkins	WR	Clemson	82.2%
Justin Pugh	OT	Syracuse	82.4%
Jamar Taylor	CB	Boise State	82.6%
Margus Hunt	ER	Southern Methodist	83.9%
Larry Warford	IL	Kentucky	86.9%
Ryan Nassib	QB	Syracuse	87.0%
Keenan Allen	WR	California	88.6%
Kawann Short	DL	Purdue	88.7%
Kyle Long	OT	Oregon	91.0%
Travis Frederick	IL	Wisconsin	91.5%
Giovani Bernard	RB	North Carolina	94.5%
Robert Alford	CB	Southeastern Louisiana	94.5%
David Amerson	CB	North Carolina State	96.3%
Brian Schwenke	IL	California	96.6%
D.J. Swearinger	SAF	South Carolina	96.6%
Gavin Escobar	TE	San Diego State	96.8%
Andre Ellington	RB	Clemson	96.9%
Terron Armstead	OT	Arkansas-Pine Bluff	97.5%
Mike Glennon	QB	North Carolina State	97.7%
John Jenkins	DL	Georgia	98.0%
Vance McDonald	TE	Rice	98.4%
Terrance Williams	WR	Baylor	98.5%
Darius Slay	CB	Mississippi State	98.5%
Alex Okafor	ER	Texas	98.7%
Barrett Jones	IL	Alabama	99.0%
Tyler Bray	QB	Tennessee	99.1%
Sio Moore	LB	Connecticut	99.1%
Jesse Williams	DL	Alabama	99.2%
Sam Montgomery	ER	LSU	99.5%
Khaseem Greene	LB	Rutgers	99.6%
Johnathan Franklin	RB	UCLA	99.7%
Tyler Wilson	QB	Arkansas	99.7%
Travis Kelce	TE	Cincinnati	99.8%
J.J. Wilcox	SAF	Rutgers	99.8%
Le'Veon Bell	RB	Michigan State	99.8%
Quinton Patton	WR	Louisiana Tech	99.8%
Brian Winters	OT	Kent State	99.9%
Blidi Wreh-Wilson	CB	Connecticut	99.9%
Aaron Dobson	WR	Marshall	99.9%
Jamie Collins	ER	Southern Mississippi	99.9%

Fan Mock v. 3.0 (FINAL)

There has been a lot of movement in the mock drafts in the last 24 hours, as reflected in the Mocktopus's "Final" Fan Mock (subject to last minute editing if the mocks are also further edited).

This is a draft where using "doubles" could potentially pay off.  For example, a trade into the first round, the mocks agree that Geno Smith will likely go to the Browns, Bills, or Jets.  The Mocktopus' Fan Mock can hedge its bets by mocking Geno multiple places in the hopes that it can get one of those picks right.  Dion Jordan and Dee Milliner continue to be hard players to mock.  The Mocktopus thinks that they are both strong second or third choices for a number of teams in the early to mid first round.

One interesting trend is the near consensus that Lane Johnson will go to the Eagles, which is remarkable, because almost no one was of that opinion twenty four hours ago.  Presently, the Mocktopus's picks made with the most confidence are Sharrif Floyd to the Raiders, Barkevious Mingo to the Jets, and Lane Johnson to the Eagles.

UPDATE: There are some small changes based on the late mocks, most notably Barkley's ascension to number eight.

1. Kansas City Chiefs / Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan 
2. Jacksonville Jaguars / Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M
3. Oakland Raiders / Sharif Floyd, DT, Florida
4. Philadelphia Eagles / Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma
5. Detroit Lions / Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU
6. Cleveland Browns / Geno Smith, QB, West Virginai
7. Arizona Cardinals / Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina
8. Buffalo Bills / Matt Barkley, QB, USC
9. New York Jets / Barkevious Mingo, OLB, LSU
10. Tennessee Titans / Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama
11. San Diego Chargers / Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama
12. Miami Dolphins / Kenny Vaccaro, SAF, Texas
13. New York Jets / Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame
14. Carolina Panthers / Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri
15. New Orleans Saints / Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia
16. St. Louis Rams / Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee
17. Pittsburgh Steelers / Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia
18. Dallas Cowboys / Sylvester Williams, DT, Missouri
19. New York Giants / Tank Carradine, DE, Florida State
20. Chicago Bears / Manti Te'o, ILB, Notre Dame
21. Cincinnati Bengals / Eric Reid, SAF, LSU
22. St. Louis Rams / Kenny Vacarro, SAF, Florida
23. Minnesota Vikings / Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee
24. Indianapolis Colts / Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State
25. Minnesota Vikings / Manti Te'o, LB, Notre Dame
26. Green Bay Packers / Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama
27. Houston Texans / Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee
28. Denver Broncos / Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State
29. New England Patriots / D.J. Hayden, CB, Houston
30. Atlanta Falcons / Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington
31. San Francisco 49ers / Kenny Vacarro, SAF, Stanford
32. Baltimore Ravens / Arthur Brown, OLB, Kansas State

Competitive Mock v. 2.0

Here is the Mocktopus's latest Competitive Mock.  Again, this mock draft has been optimized to get the highest projected score on the Huddle Report's scoring system (two points for a player matched correctly with a team and one point for each player correctly mocked in the first round).  

There are several "strategic" picks here that are unlikely to occur in the real draft.  Specifically, Dion Jordan, Tavon Austin, and Star Lotulelei are unlikely to go in the spots mocked here, but they are likely to be drafted somewhere in the first round.  Here, players like Tavon Austin replace players that Mocktopus's "Fan Mock" was lukewarm on, such as Justin Pugh, who is unlikely to be drafted in the first round if the Giants choose to pass on him.  

1. Kansas City Chiefs / Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M
2. Jacksonville Jaguars / Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan
3. Oakland Raiders / Sharif Floyd, DT, Florida
4. Philadelphia Eagles / Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma
5. Detroit Lions / Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU
6. Cleveland Browns / Geno Smith, QB, West Virginai
7. Arizona Cardinals / Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina
8. Buffalo Bills / Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama
9. New York Jets / Barkevious Mingo, OLB, LSU
10. Tennessee Titans / Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State
11. San Diego Chargers / Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama
12. Miami Dolphins / D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama
13. New York Jets / Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame
14. Carolina Panthers / Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri
15. New Orleans Saints / Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia
16. St. Louis Rams / Kenny Vacarro, SAF, Texas
17. Pittsburgh Steelers / Dion Jordan, OLB, Oregon
18. Dallas Cowboys / Sylvester Williams, DT, Missouri
19. New York Giants / Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia
20. Chicago Bears / Arthur Brown, OLB, Kansas State
21. Cincinnati Bengals / Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah
22. St. Louis Rams / Eric Reid, SAF, LSU
23. Minnesota Vikings / Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee
24. Indianapolis Colts / Datone Jones, DE, UCLA
25. Minnesota Vikings / Manti Te'o, LB, Notre Dame
26. Green Bay Packers / Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama
27. Houston Texans / Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee
28. Denver Broncos / Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State
29. New England Patriots / D.J. Hayden, CB, Houston
30. Atlanta Falcons / Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington
31. San Francisco 49ers / Zach Ertz, TE, Stanford
32. Baltimore Ravens / Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia

Fan Mock v. 2.0

With the NFL Draft less than 24 hours away, here is the second-to-last version of the Mocktopus' "Fan Mock," which is not so much a mock draft but a collection of projections for each of the 32 teams.  A more thorough explanation of the "Fan Mock" can be found here.

The latest incarnation of the rumor mill suggests that it might be Eric Fisher, and not Luke Joeckel, who will go number one overall to the Chiefs.  The Mocktopus currently projects Joeckel to the Chiefs by the thinnest of margins, but will likely move towards Fisher if any of the mocks updated tomorrow morning move in his direction.  Notice the lack of high-value players such as Dion Jordan, Dee Milliner, and Kenny Vacarro, who will almost certainly go in the first round.  The Mocktopus has a hard time mocking these players to individual teams, but you'll see them in our newest "Competitive Mock."

1. Kansas City Chiefs / Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M
2. Jacksonville Jaguars / Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan
3. Oakland Raiders / Sharif Floyd, DT, Florida
4. Philadelphia Eagles / Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma
5. Detroit Lions / Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU
6. Cleveland Browns / Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State
7. Arizona Cardinals / Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina
8. Buffalo Bills / Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama
9. New York Jets / Barkevious Mingo, OLB, LSU
10. Tennessee Titans / Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State
11. San Diego Chargers / Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama
12. Miami Dolphins / D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama
13. New York Jets / Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame
14. Carolina Panthers / Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri
15. New Orleans Saints / Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia
16. St. Louis Rams / Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama
17. Pittsburgh Steelers / Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee
18. Dallas Cowboys / Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah
19. New York Giants / Justin Pugh, OT, Syracuse
20. Chicago Bears / Arthur Brown, OLB, Kansas State
21. Cincinnati Bengals / Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia
22. St. Louis Rams / Arthur Brown, OLB, Kansas State
23. Minnesota Vikings / Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee
24. Indianapolis Colts / Datone Jones, DE, UCLA
25. Minnesota Vikings / Manti Te'o, LB, Notre Dame
26. Green Bay Packers / Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama
27. Houston Texans / Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee
28. Denver Broncos / Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State
29. New England Patriots / D.J. Hayden, CB, Houston
30. Atlanta Falcons / Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington
31. San Francisco 49ers / Zach Ertz, TE, Stanford
32. Baltimore Ravens / Kevin Minter, ILB, LSU

Mocktopus Top 100

As discussed in previous posts, an important component of the Mocktopus is a type of value board which estimates the value of each prospect in order to adjust for the bias of mock drafters towards team needs.  The Mocktopus' value board compiles the best value charts the Internet has to offer and weights them by their historical accuracy.  This is somewhat of a challenge because there have only been a few draftniks who have been producing Top 100 value boards long enough to get a large enough sample size to perform a fair evaluation of their relative strengths.  Another challenge is that there are not a lot of Top 100 lists that are very good.  Part of the issue is that it is hard enough to project where the first thirty two prospects will go, let alone the first hundred.  It takes a lot more work and a lot less luck to create a strong Top 100 list than it does for a strong mock draft.

In any event, aside from its use in the Mocktopus, a weighted consensus Top 100 list is an interesting instrument in and of itself.  Here is the Mocktopus' Top 100 list.  "ER" means all edge rushers (3-4 OLB's and 4-3 DE's), "DL" means all defensive tackles and 3-4 defensive ends, and "IL" means "interior offensive linemen."  I'll be tracking how well this Top 100 list stacks up by the scoring system used by the Huddle Report: one point per player selected in the top 100 of the actual NFL Draft.

Rank	Name	Pos	University
1	Eric Fisher	OT	Central Michigan
2	Luke Joeckel	OT	Texas A&M
3	Sharrif Floyd	DL	Florida
4	Chance Warmack	IL	Alabama
5	Lane Johnson	OT	Oklahoma
6	Dee Milliner	CB	Alabama
7	Dion Jordan	ER	Oregon
8	Jonathan Cooper	IL	North Carolina
9	Star Lotulelei	DL	Utah
10	Ezekiel Ansah	ER	Brigham Young
11	Barkevious Mingo	ER	LSU
12	Sheldon Richardson	DL	Missouri
13	Jarvis Jones	ER	Georgia
14	D.J. Fluker	OT	Alabama
15	Tyler Eifert	TE	Notre Dame
16	Kenny Vaccaro	SAF	Texas
17	Xavier Rhodes	CB	Florida State
18	Sylvester Williams	DL	North Carolina
19	Geno Smith	QB	West Virginia
20	Bjoern Werner	ER	Florida State
21	Cordarrelle Patterson	WR	Tennessee
22	Tavon Austin	WR	West Virginia
23	Manti Te'o	LB	Notre Dame
24	Alec Ogletree	LB	Georgia
25	Desmond Trufant	CB	Washington
26	Datone Jones	DL	UCLA
27	Eric Reid	SAF	LSU
28	Arthur Brown	LB	Kansas State
29	Eddie Lacy	RB	Alabama
30	Matt Barkley	QB	USC
31	Menelik Watson	OT	Florida State
32	Justin Hunter	WR	Tennessee
33	Damontre Moore	ER	Texas A&M
34	Robert Woods	WR	USC
35	Johnathan Hankins	DL	Ohio State
36	Cornellius Carradine	ER	Florida State
37	D.J. Hayden	CB	Houston
38	Zach Ertz	TE	Stanford
39	Justin Pugh	OT	Syracuse
40	DeAndre Hopkins	WR	Clemson
41	Matt Elam	SAF	Florida
42	Keenan Allen	WR	California
43	Johnthan Banks	CB	Mississippi State
44	Jonathan Cyprien	SAF	Fla. International
45	Kevin Minter	LB	LSU
46	Margus Hunt	ER	SMU
47	Kawann Short	DL	Purdue
48	EJ Manuel	QB	Florida State
49	Montee Ball	RB	Wisconsin
50	Kyle Long	OT	Oregon
51	Jamar Taylor	CB	Boise State
52	Terrance Williams	WR	Baylor
53	Ryan Nassib	QB	Syracuse
54	Larry Warford	IL	Kentucky
55	John Jenkins	DL	Georgia
56	Terron Armstead	OT	AR-Pine Bluff
57	Jesse Williams	DL	Alabama
58	Giovani Bernard	RB	North Carolina
59	Travis Frederick	IL	Wisconsin
60	Alex Okafor	ER	Texas
61	David Amerson	CB	N. Carolina State
62	Quinton Patton	WR	Louisiana Tech
63	Robert Alford	CB	Se. Louisiana
64	Darius Slay	CB	Mississippi State
65	Aaron Dobson	WR	Marshall
66	Gavin Escobar	TE	San Diego State
67	D.J. Swearinger	SAF	South Carolina
68	Sam Montgomery	ER	LSU
69	Brian Schwenke	IL	California
70	Mike Glennon	QB	N. Carolina State
71	Andre Ellington	RB	Clemson
72	Blidi Wreh-Wilson	CB	Connecticut
73	Sio Moore	LB	Connecticut
74	Brandon Williams	DL	Missouri Southern
75	Brian Winters	OT	Kent State
76	Vance McDonald	TE	Rice
77	Khaseem Greene	LB	Rutgers
78	Jamie Collins	ER	So. Mississippi
79	Dwayne Gratz	CB	Connecticut
80	Johnathan Franklin	RB	UCLA
81	Jordan Poyer	CB	Oregon State
82	Le'Veon Bell	RB	Michigan State
83	Markus Wheaton	WR	Oregon State
84	Barrett Jones	IL	Alabama
85	Tyler Bray	QB	Tennessee
86	Stedman Bailey	WR	West Virginia
87	Tyler Wilson	QB	Arkansas
88	Logan Ryan	CB	Rutgers
89	David Bakhtiari	OT	Colorado
90	J.J. Wilcox	SAF	Rutgers
91	Travis Kelce	TE	Cincinnati
92	Cornelius Washington	ER	Georgia
93	B.W. Webb	CB	William & Mary
94	Jon Bostic	LB	Florida
95	Christine Michael	RB	Texas A&M
96	Corey Lemonier	ER	Auburn
97	Phillip Thomas	SAF	Fresno State
98	David Quessenberry	OT	San Diego State
99	Tyrann Mathieu	CB	LSU
100	Bennie Logan	DL	LSU

Don't Count a Running Back Out of the First Round Yet

There is considerable speculation that the first round of this year's NFL Draft could end without a running back going off the board for the first time since 1963.  Indeed, some have come perilously close to calling this year's first round running back free before it starts.

Although this is a great year to snap the first round running back streak, it is way too soon to count a running back out of the first round.  According to the Mocktopus' simulations, there is a nearly 65% chance that a running back hears his name called this coming Thursday.

If that number seems high to you, it seemed high to me too.  That is, until I compared the running backs in this draft class with the recent history of running backs drafted in the latter half of the first round.

The broad consensus is that the back with the best chance of going in the first round is Alabama's Eddie Lacy.  The Mocktopus currently values Lacy as the 43rd pick in the draft.  That number superficially suggests that he will fall outside the first round.  However, similarly-valued backs usually end up going off the board at the end of the first.  Chris Johnson is a well-known name now, but in the 2008 Draft he was valued somewhere between the 44th and 45th pick, yet he was selected in the first round.  The next year, Donald Brown was selected with the 27th pick of the draft, despite being valued at only the 39th best player in the draft--very close to Lacy's ranking this year.  Although there has been some talk that running backs have fallen in value in recent years, just last year two teams "reached" slightly to draft running backs.  Specifically, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers traded up to draft Doug Martin, valued at the 40th pick in the draft, and the New York Giants closed out the round by selecting David Wilson, who had a value between the 45th and 46th picks.

Of course, there are some counter examples too.  Brian Leonard was valued at the 40th pick in the draft, and he managed to slip to the second round of the 2007 draft.  Also, in the 2011 Draft, Mikel Leshoure, who had roughly the same value as Lacy slipped to the second round.  However, those counter-examples are the reason that the chances of a running back going in this year's draft are somewhat close to 50-50, not a reason to claim definitively there "will not" be a running back drafted in the first round.

The great advantage of drafting a running back is that the investment typically yields immediate (although short-lived) returns.  That might be an appealing prospect for the type of teams who typically select at the end of the draft, who have had recent success and may be looking for the one piece that can "get them over the top."  The Broncos, Falcons, 49ers, and Packers, for example, could reasonably expect to field Super Bowl teams next year, and all could benefit from better talent at the running back position.