2013 Competitive Mock v. 1.0

A few days ago, I posted the first "Fan Mock" from the Mocktopus.  Today I'm posting the Mocktopus' first "Competitive Mock."  So what's the difference?

The Fan Mock eschews conventional wisdom by ignoring the tendency for mock drafts to try to create a plausible projection for the draft as a whole, in favor of making accurate as possible projections to each of the individual thirty teams (the Redskins and Seahawks do not have first round picks).  This exercise ends up creating a number of "doubles": players who are projected to two or more teams.

The Competitive Mock is a bit more traditional than the Fan Mock, but it breaks from conventional wisdom in its own way.  The Competitive Mock seeks to create a mock draft that optimizes the mock's ability to score well on the mock draft scoring system popularized by the web site The Huddle Report.  The Huddle Report scores mock drafts by awarding the mock draft two points for each player correctly mocked to his eventual team and one point for each player correctly mocked in the first round (so, for instance, a correct mocking of Luke Joeckel to the Chiefs would earn three points: two for pairing him for the Chiefs and one for the correctly including him in the first round).  

Accordingly, the Competitive Mock removes the weakest member of each "double" and replaces him with players who have the highest expected points in the Huddle Report's scoring system.  For example, the Mocktopus currently likes Cordarelle Patterson to go to both the Steelers and the Rams, but likes him to go to the Steelers a bit more.  At the same time, the Mocktopus has trouble finding a home for Warmack, a player who is not the most likely player at any one pick, but is almost certain to go somewhere in the first round.  It turns out that Warmack has a relatively strong chance of going to the Rams according to the Mocktopus, although not as strong as Austin or Patterson.  Thus, the Competitive Mock substitutes Patterson for Warmack in order to "lock in" a likely one point for mocking Warmack in the first round and a plausible chance of getting two points if the Rams do indeed select him.

Although the elimination of the doubles makes the Competitive Mock look a lot like a traditional mock, the Mocktopus's Competitive Mock often creates a mock draft that flows in a way that a traditional mock draft, or indeed, the actual NFL Draft, is likely to flow.  For example, when run for the 2011 NFL Draft, the Mocktopus mocked Muhammad Wilkerson to the San Francisco 49ers at number seven overall, even though there was almost no chance that the 49ers would take him there.  The Mocktopus's reasoning, however, was that the identity of the 49ers selection was incredibly uncertain, and that all of its potential selections were more likely to be drafted by other teams.  Meanwhile, the Mocktopus had trouble finding a place for Wilkerson, which it was nearly sure would be taken in the first round.  Accordingly, although it was much less than ideal, the Mocktopus put Wilkerson with the 49ers, locked in the one expected point, and sought to score more points elsewhere.  In retrospect, it was not a bad decision: the 49ers ended up selecting Aldon Smith, which was a mild surprise, and Wilkerson eventually went to the Jets near the end of round one.

1. Kansas City Chiefs / Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M
2. Jacksonville Jaguars / Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU
3. Oakland Raiders / Sharif Floyd, DT, Florida
4. Philadelphia Eagles / Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
5. Detroit Lions / Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama
6. Cleveland Browns / Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State
7. Arizona Cardinals / Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah
8. Buffalo Bills / Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia
9. New York Jets / Dion Jordan, OLB, Oregon
10. Tennessee Titans / Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State
11. San Diego Chargers / Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma
12. Miami Dolphins / Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers / Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri
14. Carolina Panthers / Kenny Vacarro, SAF, Texas
15. New Orleans Saints / Barkevious Mingo, OLB, LSU
16. St. Louis Rams / Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia
17. Pittsburgh Steelers / Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee
18. Dallas Cowboys / Johnathan Hankins, DT, Ohio State
19. New York Giants / D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama
20. Chicago Bears / Johnathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina
21. Cincinnati Bengals / Melenik Watson, OT, Florida State
22. St. Louis Rams / Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee
23. Minnesota Vikings / Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia
24. Indianapolis Colts / Datone Jones, DE, UCLA
25. Minnesota Vikings / Manti Te'o, LB, Notre Dame
26. Green Bay Packers / Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama
27. Houston Texans / Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame
28. Denver Broncos / Damontre Moore, DE, Texas A&M
29. New England Patriots / Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina
30. Atlanta Falcons / Zach Ertz, TE, Stanford
31. San Francisco 49ers / Eric Reid, SAF, LSU
32. Baltimore Ravens / Keenan Allen, WR, California