Don't Count a Running Back Out of the First Round Yet

There is considerable speculation that the first round of this year's NFL Draft could end without a running back going off the board for the first time since 1963.  Indeed, some have come perilously close to calling this year's first round running back free before it starts.

Although this is a great year to snap the first round running back streak, it is way too soon to count a running back out of the first round.  According to the Mocktopus' simulations, there is a nearly 65% chance that a running back hears his name called this coming Thursday.

If that number seems high to you, it seemed high to me too.  That is, until I compared the running backs in this draft class with the recent history of running backs drafted in the latter half of the first round.

The broad consensus is that the back with the best chance of going in the first round is Alabama's Eddie Lacy.  The Mocktopus currently values Lacy as the 43rd pick in the draft.  That number superficially suggests that he will fall outside the first round.  However, similarly-valued backs usually end up going off the board at the end of the first.  Chris Johnson is a well-known name now, but in the 2008 Draft he was valued somewhere between the 44th and 45th pick, yet he was selected in the first round.  The next year, Donald Brown was selected with the 27th pick of the draft, despite being valued at only the 39th best player in the draft--very close to Lacy's ranking this year.  Although there has been some talk that running backs have fallen in value in recent years, just last year two teams "reached" slightly to draft running backs.  Specifically, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers traded up to draft Doug Martin, valued at the 40th pick in the draft, and the New York Giants closed out the round by selecting David Wilson, who had a value between the 45th and 46th picks.

Of course, there are some counter examples too.  Brian Leonard was valued at the 40th pick in the draft, and he managed to slip to the second round of the 2007 draft.  Also, in the 2011 Draft, Mikel Leshoure, who had roughly the same value as Lacy slipped to the second round.  However, those counter-examples are the reason that the chances of a running back going in this year's draft are somewhat close to 50-50, not a reason to claim definitively there "will not" be a running back drafted in the first round.

The great advantage of drafting a running back is that the investment typically yields immediate (although short-lived) returns.  That might be an appealing prospect for the type of teams who typically select at the end of the draft, who have had recent success and may be looking for the one piece that can "get them over the top."  The Broncos, Falcons, 49ers, and Packers, for example, could reasonably expect to field Super Bowl teams next year, and all could benefit from better talent at the running back position.