Second Round Probabilities

With the final mocks and rankings entered, it's time to calculate the probability that each prospect falls to the second round.  Although there is considerable confusion concerning who will go where in the first, the actual identity of the first rounders is relatively certain, as reflected in the probabilities below.

Name	Pos	University	Percent
Luke Joeckel	OT	Texas A&M	0.9%
Dee Milliner	CB	Alabama	1.1%
Eric Fisher	OT	Central Michigan	1.1%
Chance Warmack	IL	Alabama	1.5%
Jonathan Cooper	IL	North Carolina	1.7%
Sharrif Floyd	DL	Florida	1.7%
Ezekiel Ansah	ER	Brigham Young	2.1%
Dion Jordan	ER	Oregon	2.8%
Lane Johnson	OT	Oklahoma	2.9%
Barkevious Mingo	ER	LSU	3.5%
Star Lotulelei	DL	Utah	4.0%
Xavier Rhodes	CB	Florida State	5.6%
Jarvis Jones	ER	Georgia	5.6%
Sheldon Richardson	DL	Missouri	7.6%
Kenny Vaccaro	SAF	Texas	9.5%
Tyler Eifert	TE	Notre Dame	12.9%
D.J. Fluker	OT	Alabama	14.6%
Desmond Trufant	CB	Washington	15.6%
Sylvester Williams	DL	North Carolina	16.4%
Bjoern Werner	ER	Florida State	16.7%
Cordarrelle Patterson	WR	Tennessee	20.6%
Manti Te'o	LB	Notre Dame	23.1%
Geno Smith	QB	West Virginia	29.6%
D.J. Hayden	CB	Houston	30.7%
Tavon Austin	WR	West Virginia	30.7%
Eric Reid	SAF	LSU	34.3%
Alec Ogletree	LB	Georgia	35.2%
Eddie Lacy	RB	Alabama	38.7%
Justin Hunter	WR	Tennessee	42.6%
Arthur Brown	LB	Kansas State	42.6%
Matt Barkley	QB	Southern California	48.1%
Datone Jones	DL	UCLA	52.7%
Robert Woods	WR	Southern California	60.1%
Cornellius Carradine	ER	Florida State	61.1%
Damontre Moore	ER	Texas A&M	61.1%
Matt Elam	SAF	Florida	64.2%
Zach Ertz	TE	Stanford	64.2%
Johnthan Banks	CB	Mississippi State	65.4%
Menelik Watson	OT	Florida State	68.2%
Kevin Minter	LB	LSU	72.2%
Montee Ball	RB	Wisconsin	73.6%
Jonathan Cyprien	SAF	Florida International	74.4%
EJ Manuel	QB	Florida State	76.3%
Johnathan Hankins	DL	Ohio State	78.5%
DeAndre Hopkins	WR	Clemson	82.2%
Justin Pugh	OT	Syracuse	82.4%
Jamar Taylor	CB	Boise State	82.6%
Margus Hunt	ER	Southern Methodist	83.9%
Larry Warford	IL	Kentucky	86.9%
Ryan Nassib	QB	Syracuse	87.0%
Keenan Allen	WR	California	88.6%
Kawann Short	DL	Purdue	88.7%
Kyle Long	OT	Oregon	91.0%
Travis Frederick	IL	Wisconsin	91.5%
Giovani Bernard	RB	North Carolina	94.5%
Robert Alford	CB	Southeastern Louisiana	94.5%
David Amerson	CB	North Carolina State	96.3%
Brian Schwenke	IL	California	96.6%
D.J. Swearinger	SAF	South Carolina	96.6%
Gavin Escobar	TE	San Diego State	96.8%
Andre Ellington	RB	Clemson	96.9%
Terron Armstead	OT	Arkansas-Pine Bluff	97.5%
Mike Glennon	QB	North Carolina State	97.7%
John Jenkins	DL	Georgia	98.0%
Vance McDonald	TE	Rice	98.4%
Terrance Williams	WR	Baylor	98.5%
Darius Slay	CB	Mississippi State	98.5%
Alex Okafor	ER	Texas	98.7%
Barrett Jones	IL	Alabama	99.0%
Tyler Bray	QB	Tennessee	99.1%
Sio Moore	LB	Connecticut	99.1%
Jesse Williams	DL	Alabama	99.2%
Sam Montgomery	ER	LSU	99.5%
Khaseem Greene	LB	Rutgers	99.6%
Johnathan Franklin	RB	UCLA	99.7%
Tyler Wilson	QB	Arkansas	99.7%
Travis Kelce	TE	Cincinnati	99.8%
J.J. Wilcox	SAF	Rutgers	99.8%
Le'Veon Bell	RB	Michigan State	99.8%
Quinton Patton	WR	Louisiana Tech	99.8%
Brian Winters	OT	Kent State	99.9%
Blidi Wreh-Wilson	CB	Connecticut	99.9%
Aaron Dobson	WR	Marshall	99.9%
Jamie Collins	ER	Southern Mississippi	99.9%