Another Reason for the Buccaneers to Trade for Revis: Their Pick Might Suck for Them

There have been numerous reports that the Buccaneers are interested in trading for all-world (but currently injured) cornerback Darrelle Revis.  Trading for Revis has an understandable appeal: there is no better way to upgrade a clear position of need with a player who has been the league's best for years.  However, there may be another reason for the Buccaneers to trade for Revis: their pick might suck for them.

Although its principal purpose is to create mock drafts, the Mocktopus can also measure the likelihood that a given player is available at a given pick.  Unfortunately for the Buccaneers, there is a good chance that the value on the board at number thirteen will not line up well with their needs.

The Buccaneers' greatest need appears to be at cornerback.  If the season were to start today, the Buccaneers would go to war with two of either journeyman Eric Wright, unproven Leonard Johnson, or aging Rhonde Barber.  The Buccaneers also have little depth at the position.

Unfortunately, there is a huge talent gap between the first and second cornerbacks available in the NFL Draft.  Dee Milliner, the Draft's top cornerback, is unlikely to be available to the Buccaneers: he is available in just 21.7% of simulations.  Xavier Rhodes, the draft's second-best cornerback, is available in 68.2% of simulations, but would be poor value.  The Mocktopus estimates that Rhodes is worth approximately the 25th pick in the draft, which would make his selection at thirteen somewhat of a reach.

The Buccaneers also could conceivably go after an edge pass rusher.  The most likely options appear to be Barkevious Mingo and Bjoern Werner, who are available to the Buccaneers in 44.2% and 57.6% of simulations respectively.  Although you can never have enough good pass rushers, however, another edge rusher might be difficult to justify, given that the Buccaneers still have two highly drafted players, Adrian Clayborn and Da'Quan Bowers, to battle the new draftee for playing time.

Selecting a defensive tackle may be a slightly better option.  Some mock drafts have the Buccaneers selecting Utah's Star Lotulelei as a "good value" pick.  However, although Lotulelei does not have an obvious place within the first twelve picks, he is likely to go somewhere: the Mocktopus has him available in just 33.5% of simulations.  More likely, the Draft's third highest rated defensive tackle, Sheldon Richardson, will be available: he appears in 54.9% of simulations.  Richardson, however, is less an ideal and more an "acceptable" selection.  He is only an average value: the Mocktopus values him somewhere between the fourteenth and fifteenth pick in the draft.  So, in essence, the most likely selection for the Buccaneers fills a moderate need and is an average value.  That's hardly an opportunity appealing enough to tempt the Buccaneers away from Revis.

That said, the Buccaneers are smart to wait until they are on the clock to pull the trigger on the trade.  Although there is only a roughly 21.7% chance that Milliner is available and only a roughly 33.5% chance that Lotulelei is available, there is a nearly 50% chance that at least one of those two will be available.  Having a potential trade for Revis in hand, however, is a great fallback option.